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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 14, 20246 min read
Week ended Dec 13, 2024: markets slightly weaker
Bond yields ticked up after an in-line Nov CPI report, reminding investors the inflation battle is not over. Stocks were weaker.,
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 7, 20247 min read
Week ended Dec 6, 2024: risk markets and USTs better, Bitcoin soars to record
Stocks reached more record highs in the US, but Asian and European stocks outperformed. UST yields slightly lower. Bitcoin soars to record
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 30, 20243 min read
Week ended Nov 29, 2024: US stocks and bonds soar
US stocks and bonds soar. Yields were lower across the maturity curve. Gold, the US Dollar and oil fell, and the Yen strengthened.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 23, 20246 min read
Week ended Nov 22, 2024: NVDA earnings, US retailers
Equities were better in the US and Europe. UST yields were marginally changed. Gold and Bitcoin soared to record highs. The Dollar was up
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 16, 20246 min read
Week ended Nov 15th 2024: The "Trump Bump" fades
But Trump is “not against trade — he thinks a lot of these things have been unfair against America, and there are examples where that’s...
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 9, 20249 min read
Week ended Nov 8, 2024: Markets adapt to president-elect Trump
Last week was mainly about the US election, which D Trump and the Republicans won in a landslide. The "Trump trade" was full on.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 2, 20247 min read
Week ended Nov 1, 2024: UK autumn budget, earnings, economic data
UK autumn budget, earnings galore (including five "Mag 7" companies), and gobs of economic data...just as we lead into the US election!!
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 26, 20245 min read
Week ended Oct 25, 2024: yields push higher
Both equity and bond markets lost ground last week, although Chinese stocks were positive as well the NASDAQ following TSLA earnings.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 19, 20245 min read
Week ended October 18, 2024: more records
US stocks and gold hit more record highs. S&P 500 earnings mixed: banks strong, chip companies mixed, luxury struggles.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 12, 20245 min read
Week ended Oct 11, 2024: more record highs for US stocks
CPI slightly hotter than expected, and earnings off to a good start. Yields continue to back up, US stocks at record high close.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 5, 20245 min read
Week ended October 4, 2024: soft landing in sight
Risk remains asymmetrical to the downside, but a robust US jobs report cheered risk investors on Friday and sent UST yields sharply higher.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 28, 20245 min read
Week ended Sept 27, 2024: China delivers stimulus, PCE data in line
Chinese stimulus measures buoyed stocks globally, and US Treasuries were stable. Gold paused and oil fell. The Dollar was weaker.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 21, 20247 min read
Week ended Sept 20, 2024: central bank decisions feature
Last week was mainly about a trifecta of central bank decisions, with most attention focused on the Fed. The Fed Funds rate was reduced .50%
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 14, 20246 min read
Week ended Sept 13, 2024: it was an "everything up" week
It was one of those weeks that if you didn't chalk up portfolio gains, it would be difficult to figure out why. Bonds and stocks rallied.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 7, 20246 min read
Week ended Sept 6, 2024: sentiment deteriorates
US Labor Day holiday marked the unofficial end of summer, and also a demarcation for risk sentiment. Bonds rallied and stocks got hammered.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 1, 20246 min read
Week ended August 30, 2024
Earnings and economic data (especially inflation data) continued to improve risk sentiment. The yield curve inversion ended. Dollar better
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 24, 20243 min read
Week ended August 23, 2024: Fed "pencils in" first rate reduction
A confluence of economic data, punctuated by a speech by Fed Chair Powell on Friday in Jackson Hole, suggests rate cuts are coming soon.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 17, 20244 min read
Week ended Aug 16, 2024: "everything up" week!
It was an "everything up" week, with global equities, US Treasuries, corporate bonds and gold all registering gains. Happy summer!
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