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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.
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Mag 7 stocks, earnings, "hands off" the Fed and Jeffrey Sachs at ADF
Quick look to start the week with earnings, including TSLA and GOOG, Jeffrey Sachs explaining poor Trump policies and the Fed's independence
tim@emorningcoffee.com
38 minutes ago4 min read
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Week ended April 18, 2025
There will be no "Fed put" according to Mr Powell, which rattled markets and evoked a response from Mr Trump. US equities slumped again.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
3 days ago5 min read
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Portfolio update: 1Q2025
The first quarter was actually quite decent for me, although the start to April has been horrible since there is nowhere to hide.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 96 min read
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Musings to start the week
Down we go in a self-inflicted mess caused by Mr Trump's errant tariff policy. I talk about trade and budget deficits, and the week ahead.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 75 min read
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Week ended April 4, 2025: stocks hammered following Trump tariff announcement
The announcement of tariffs by President Trump on Weds made a nervous market completely puke, with stocks getting hammered.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 55 min read
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Mag 7 stocks: a tough 1Q2025 (and now "on sale"?)
This is a very brief update for the Mag 7 stocks for 1Q2025, all of which were down, several sharply. It is not getting better either!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 39 min read
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First quarter 2025 review of markets
The 1Q2025 is in the bag, not an easy quarter. US stocks performed poorly, but gold and European stocks did well. Treasuries also did ok.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 312 min read
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"Worst economy ever"? Not even close!
Inspired by Mr Trump's false claims that he inherited the "worst economy ever", this article looks at administrations' economic performance.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 266 min read
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Cars, tariffs and social security "fraud"
This article summarises two articles and one podcast that are topical,: US/EU automotive tariffs, social security "fraud", and steel tariffs
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 197 min read
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Balance of payments, trade and tariffs
The week started with the Trump Administration announcing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, the first two of which were quickly rescinded
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 69 min read
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Week ended Jan 31, 2025: earnings and central bank decisions dominate
The week started and ended poorly for US stocks, delivering losses for the week. European stocks have been the best performers YtD.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 15 min read
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DeepSeek, ASML earnings, Mag 7 earnings and FOMC decision
DeepSeek wrecks outlook for AI companies; Mag 7 companies MSFT, META, TSLA and AAPL report earnings; FOMC expected to hold rates
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 293 min read
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Portfolio update: 4Q2024 and full year
This article contains an update of my 2024 portfolio performance. My returns were decent but not as good as they should have been.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 227 min read
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American Exceptionalism
Better late than never, in that this article is about my views on American exceptionalism, both economically and as far as US stocks.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 813 min read
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Summary of 2024 in tables
This article contains a summary of full-year 2024 performance of the indices and assets tracked by EMC, plus historical data, too.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 31 min read
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2024 market and asset performance vs my expectations: how'd I do?
I "guessed" at how markets would perform in 2024 last year at this time. Some I got right, some I got wrong, not different from the pros.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 31, 20248 min read
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A quick look at MicroStrategy (MSTR)
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has had an amazing run since it adopted its Bitcoin accumulation strategy in Aug 2020. Has it run too far too fast?
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 27, 202411 min read
112
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Does the "Trump rally" have legs?
Some stocks that clearly "track" President-elect Trump's varied campaign promises have rallied hard, including TSLA, BTC, COIN and KRE.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 12, 20245 min read
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