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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended Jan 30, 2026: A new Fed chair is chosen
Stocks and precious metals bounce around as more earnings come and go, the Fed holds rates steady as expected, and a new Fed chairman is nominated by Mr Trump.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
4 hours ago4 min read


10% cap on credit card interest: a very bad idea!
President Trump has shown his populist colours by jumping on board a liberal proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year. This makes no sense! And it looks to be going nowhere fast.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
1 day ago6 min read


Week ended Jan 23, 2026: EM stocks and precious metals lead gains
Mr Trump was just where he wanted to be – the centre of attention at the #WEF in #Davos. Fortunately for investors, he climbed down from his "gotta have Greenland" position to reach some sort of undisclosed "deal" with the Europeans. Concurrently, JGB yields spiked with investors spoked by the budget outlook in Japan. Ultimately, US and European stocks ended the week lower, as Asian and emerging stocks drove gains. Gold continues to power ahead.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
7 days ago4 min read


Portfolio update: year-end 2025
This article is an update of my personal portfolio at year-end 2025. My blended full-year return for 2025 across my portfolio (excluding alternative assets) was 17.1%. It helped being in the right names, a combination of a bit of skill and experience, and a lot of luck.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 226 min read


The K-shaped economy and affordability
This is a short article about the K-shaped economy, driven by persistently high inflation and exacerbated by the errant "One, Big Beautiful Bill".
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 65 min read


U.S. Treasury Yields: what's next?
US Treasury yields are stuck, with the 10y UST yielding just north of 4%, What might be coming next? This article presents the factors that will influence the next gap up or down in UST yields.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 13, 20257 min read


What might A.I. mean for investors?
I am not expert in artificial intelligence, although I do have a basic grasp of its expected benefits balanced by the possible social implications. However, this article focuses on A.I. from an investor's perspective, since the stocks of companies that can attach themselves even loosely to the A.I. narrative have taken off like a rocket.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 20, 20258 min read


Record high after record high....what to do?
As risk markets surge, especially US stocks (but also corporate bonds), it's hard not to scratch your head and ask how long this can carry on? I have no idea, but I think the end might be near. In the meantime, I stick to my standard investment approach.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 18, 20256 min read


First half 2025: indices and market update
This article contains tables and commentary regarding the rather volatile but ultimately positive first half of 2025.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 4, 20256 min read


NATO
NATO was front and centre last week as the annual NATO Summit was held in The Hague on Tuesday and Wednesday, making it an opportune time...
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 2, 20257 min read


"Worst economy ever"? Not even close!
Inspired by Mr Trump's false claims that he inherited the "worst economy ever", this article looks at administrations' economic performance.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 25, 20256 min read


Cars, tariffs and social security "fraud"
This article summarises two articles and one podcast that are topical,: US/EU automotive tariffs, social security "fraud", and steel tariffs
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 19, 20257 min read


Balance of payments, trade and tariffs
The week started with the Trump Administration announcing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, the first two of which were quickly rescinded
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 6, 20259 min read


American Exceptionalism
Better late than never, in that this article is about my views on American exceptionalism, both economically and as far as US stocks.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 8, 202513 min read


Summary of 2024 in tables
This article contains a summary of full-year 2024 performance of the indices and assets tracked by EMC, plus historical data, too.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 3, 20251 min read


2024 market and asset performance vs my expectations: how'd I do?
I "guessed" at how markets would perform in 2024 last year at this time. Some I got right, some I got wrong, not different from the pros.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 31, 20248 min read


A quick look at MicroStrategy (MSTR)
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has had an amazing run since it adopted its Bitcoin accumulation strategy in Aug 2020. Has it run too far too fast?
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 27, 202411 min read


Does the "Trump rally" have legs?
Some stocks that clearly "track" President-elect Trump's varied campaign promises have rallied hard, including TSLA, BTC, COIN and KRE.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 12, 20245 min read
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