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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
3 hours ago5 min read
Week ended Mar 7, 2025: markets continue to spiral down
Tariffs followed by partial capitulation, a strategic crypto reserve, and further erosion in markets summed up another tumultuous week.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
6 days ago6 min read
Week ended Feb 28, 2025: investors are "risk off"
Market volatility is increasing due to erratic US government policies. Bonds, gold, and foreign stocks are the place to hide.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 256 min read
"Worst economy ever"? Not even close!
Inspired by Mr Trump's false claims that he inherited the "worst economy ever", this article looks at administrations' economic performance.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 197 min read
Cars, tariffs and social security "fraud"
This article summarises two articles and one podcast that are topical,: US/EU automotive tariffs, social security "fraud", and steel tariffs
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 69 min read
Balance of payments, trade and tariffs
The week started with the Trump Administration announcing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, the first two of which were quickly rescinded
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 15 min read
Week ended Jan 31, 2025: earnings and central bank decisions dominate
The week started and ended poorly for US stocks, delivering losses for the week. European stocks have been the best performers YtD.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 293 min read
DeepSeek, ASML earnings, Mag 7 earnings and FOMC decision
DeepSeek wrecks outlook for AI companies; Mag 7 companies MSFT, META, TSLA and AAPL report earnings; FOMC expected to hold rates
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 227 min read
Portfolio update: 4Q2024 and full year
This article contains an update of my 2024 portfolio performance. My returns were decent but not as good as they should have been.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 813 min read
American Exceptionalism
Better late than never, in that this article is about my views on American exceptionalism, both economically and as far as US stocks.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 31 min read
Summary of 2024 in tables
This article contains a summary of full-year 2024 performance of the indices and assets tracked by EMC, plus historical data, too.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 31, 20248 min read
2024 market and asset performance vs my expectations: how'd I do?
I "guessed" at how markets would perform in 2024 last year at this time. Some I got right, some I got wrong, not different from the pros.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 27, 202411 min read
A quick look at MicroStrategy (MSTR)
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has had an amazing run since it adopted its Bitcoin accumulation strategy in Aug 2020. Has it run too far too fast?
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 12, 20245 min read
Does the "Trump rally" have legs?
Some stocks that clearly "track" President-elect Trump's varied campaign promises have rallied hard, including TSLA, BTC, COIN and KRE.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 7, 20243 min read
The US election aftermath: the morning after
This article is short and covers the blowout results and reasons, what Trump 2.0 means for investors, and Mr Trump's promises.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 3, 20244 min read
The US election: things you should know
Here are a few last-minute thoughts on the US election which will be held on Tuesday, Nov 5. A lot is at stake, but Weds, the world goes on
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 9, 20249 min read
Portfolio update: 3Q2024
This is the update of my personal portfolio for the most recent quarter ended September 30, 2024.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 25, 202410 min read
Three key election issues: immigration, inflation and abortion
There are many important issues in the US Presidential election, but none more so perhaps than immigration, inflation, and abortion.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 24, 20248 min read
Portfolio update: 1H2024
This is an update of my personal portfolio performance in 2Q2024 and 1H2024, good on the surface but worse than the indices would suggest.
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