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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.
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Week ended May 16, 2025: What caught my eye this week
President Trump has been in the Middle East this week with a contingent of US business leaders and his finance / economics team, cutting...
tim@emorningcoffee.com
16 hours ago5 min read
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Week ended May 9, 2025: Trump says "buy stocks" (again)
Markets continued to stabilise this week, at least as far as risk assets including global equities and BTC. Other assets moved sideways.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 86 min read
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Week ended May 2, 2025: Risk is back on!
Markets are at last returning to some sense of normalcy, with the S&P 500 now clawing back all of its losses since the infamous...
tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 36 min read
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Four tech giants to report earnings: MSFT, META, AMZN and AAPL
Four of the infamous tech giants in the Mag & report earnings today and tomorrow: MSFT, META, AMZN and AAPL. Risk is downside asymmetrical.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 303 min read
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Portfolio update: 1Q2025
The first quarter was actually quite decent for me, although the start to April has been horrible since there is nowhere to hide.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 96 min read
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Musings to start the week
Down we go in a self-inflicted mess caused by Mr Trump's errant tariff policy. I talk about trade and budget deficits, and the week ahead.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 75 min read
25
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Week ended April 4, 2025: stocks hammered following Trump tariff announcement
The announcement of tariffs by President Trump on Weds made a nervous market completely puke, with stocks getting hammered.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 55 min read
112
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Mag 7 stocks: a tough 1Q2025 (and now "on sale"?)
This is a very brief update for the Mag 7 stocks for 1Q2025, all of which were down, several sharply. It is not getting better either!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 39 min read
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First quarter 2025 review of markets
The 1Q2025 is in the bag, not an easy quarter. US stocks performed poorly, but gold and European stocks did well. Treasuries also did ok.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 312 min read
52
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"Worst economy ever"? Not even close!
Inspired by Mr Trump's false claims that he inherited the "worst economy ever", this article looks at administrations' economic performance.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 266 min read
135
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Cars, tariffs and social security "fraud"
This article summarises two articles and one podcast that are topical,: US/EU automotive tariffs, social security "fraud", and steel tariffs
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 197 min read
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Balance of payments, trade and tariffs
The week started with the Trump Administration announcing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, the first two of which were quickly rescinded
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 69 min read
114
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Week ended Jan 31, 2025: earnings and central bank decisions dominate
The week started and ended poorly for US stocks, delivering losses for the week. European stocks have been the best performers YtD.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 15 min read
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DeepSeek, ASML earnings, Mag 7 earnings and FOMC decision
DeepSeek wrecks outlook for AI companies; Mag 7 companies MSFT, META, TSLA and AAPL report earnings; FOMC expected to hold rates
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 293 min read
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Portfolio update: 4Q2024 and full year
This article contains an update of my 2024 portfolio performance. My returns were decent but not as good as they should have been.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 227 min read
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American Exceptionalism
Better late than never, in that this article is about my views on American exceptionalism, both economically and as far as US stocks.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 813 min read
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Summary of 2024 in tables
This article contains a summary of full-year 2024 performance of the indices and assets tracked by EMC, plus historical data, too.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 31 min read
52
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2024 market and asset performance vs my expectations: how'd I do?
I "guessed" at how markets would perform in 2024 last year at this time. Some I got right, some I got wrong, not different from the pros.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 31, 20248 min read
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