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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended Dec 19th 2025: flawed economic data and central bank decisions
Stocks were mixed last week, with European stocks turning in the best performance of the week, and Japanese stocks the worst. Tech stocks drove the NASDAQ higher, with the DJIA and Russell 2000 losing ground. Treasuries and gold were better bid. The catalysts were US economic data and several important central bank decisions, all of which were as expected. The coming weeks will be holiday-shortened.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
11 hours ago4 min read


Week ended Dec 12, 2025: FOMC delivers as expected, A.I. bubble concerns resurface
The FOMC fell in line and served up an expected "hawkish rate cut". However, both Oracle and Broadcom – key players in the A.I. boom – saw their shares sink for different reasons, with the common denominator being A.I. valuation concerns. Yields were higher and gold rallied.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 134 min read


U.S. Treasury Yields: what's next?
US Treasury yields are stuck, with the 10y UST yielding just north of 4%, What might be coming next? This article presents the factors that will influence the next gap up or down in UST yields.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 137 min read


What might A.I. mean for investors?
I am not expert in artificial intelligence, although I do have a basic grasp of its expected benefits balanced by the possible social implications. However, this article focuses on A.I. from an investor's perspective, since the stocks of companies that can attach themselves even loosely to the A.I. narrative have taken off like a rocket.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 208 min read


Record high after record high....what to do?
As risk markets surge, especially US stocks (but also corporate bonds), it's hard not to scratch your head and ask how long this can carry on? I have no idea, but I think the end might be near. In the meantime, I stick to my standard investment approach.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 186 min read


First half 2025: indices and market update
This article contains tables and commentary regarding the rather volatile but ultimately positive first half of 2025.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 46 min read


NATO
NATO was front and centre last week as the annual NATO Summit was held in The Hague on Tuesday and Wednesday, making it an opportune time...
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 27 min read


"Worst economy ever"? Not even close!
Inspired by Mr Trump's false claims that he inherited the "worst economy ever", this article looks at administrations' economic performance.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 256 min read


Cars, tariffs and social security "fraud"
This article summarises two articles and one podcast that are topical,: US/EU automotive tariffs, social security "fraud", and steel tariffs
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 197 min read


Balance of payments, trade and tariffs
The week started with the Trump Administration announcing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, the first two of which were quickly rescinded
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 69 min read


American Exceptionalism
Better late than never, in that this article is about my views on American exceptionalism, both economically and as far as US stocks.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 813 min read


Summary of 2024 in tables
This article contains a summary of full-year 2024 performance of the indices and assets tracked by EMC, plus historical data, too.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 31 min read


2024 market and asset performance vs my expectations: how'd I do?
I "guessed" at how markets would perform in 2024 last year at this time. Some I got right, some I got wrong, not different from the pros.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 31, 20248 min read


A quick look at MicroStrategy (MSTR)
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has had an amazing run since it adopted its Bitcoin accumulation strategy in Aug 2020. Has it run too far too fast?
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 27, 202411 min read


Does the "Trump rally" have legs?
Some stocks that clearly "track" President-elect Trump's varied campaign promises have rallied hard, including TSLA, BTC, COIN and KRE.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 12, 20245 min read


The US election aftermath: the morning after
This article is short and covers the blowout results and reasons, what Trump 2.0 means for investors, and Mr Trump's promises.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 7, 20243 min read


The US election: things you should know
Here are a few last-minute thoughts on the US election which will be held on Tuesday, Nov 5. A lot is at stake, but Weds, the world goes on
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 3, 20244 min read


Portfolio update: 3Q2024
This is the update of my personal portfolio for the most recent quarter ended September 30, 2024.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 9, 20249 min read
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